September 7th, 2025

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PUBLISHED: [09/07/2025]

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September 7th, 2025

Last Price                      Fair Value Estimate           Market Cap                     

$35.89 USD        $60 USD                 $19.3B USD

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Business Overview

Rogers Communications is a telecommunications and media company operating across Canada, offering wireless communications, cable television, internet, and security services to both residential and business customers. As a partner of Comcast, Rogers communications offers Comcast technology and branding in Canada including Rogers Xfinity. Additionally, Rogers owns various different media assets including a range of different regional T.V. channels, radio stations, and podcasts. Rogers Communications currently owns 75% of the Toronto Raptors, 75% of the Toronto Maple Leafs, 75% of Toronto FC, and 100% of the Toronto Blue Jays. The company is Canada’s largest wireless provider with over 30% market share.

Why We Like Rogers Communications

We believe that Rogers Communications presents an attractive buying opportunity at the moment as it combines a dominant telecommunications business with major holdings in overlooked sports/media assets and strong free cash flows relative to its current valuation. We see Rogers Communications as two different businesses: a more typical communications company operating in cable T.V., internet, and wireless, and a holding company for Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment assets that the market may be currently overlooking. Additionally, management has recently put significant focus on reducing debt, a critical step forward that we believe has the potential to drive serious upside. 

Financials and margins

(All numbers in the above table are in CAD)

In 2024, Rogers Communications saw $18.1 billion CAD or $13.1 billion USD in revenue, $9.6 billion CAD or $7 billion USD in EBITDA, capital expenditures of $4 billion CAD or $2.9 billion USD, and free cash flow of $3 billion CAD or $2.2 billion USD. This means an EBITDA margin of 53.23% and a free cashflow conversion rate of 31.64%. Their 2025 guidance includes revenue growth of 3-5%, EBITDA growth of 0-3%, capital expenditures of $3.8 billion CAD or $2.7 billion USD, and free cash flow of $3-3.2 billion CAD or $2.17-$2.3 billion USD.

In 2024, Rogers Communications had a gross margin of about 47%, an operating margin of about 24%, and a net margin of about 8%. These are seen as fairly typical when compared to other telecom companies both within Canada and the states. A comparison of these margins is seen below including Rogers Communications (NYSE:RCI), BCE Inc (NYSE:BCE), Telus Corporation (NYSE:TU), Quebecor Inc (TSX: QBR-B.TO), AT&T (NYSE:T), and Verizon (NYSE:VZ).

Looking at their balance sheet, Rogers Communications has $6.96 Billion CAD or $5 Billion USD in cash and $42.45 billion CAD or $30.7 billion USD in debt. This equates to an enterprise value of about $45.1 billion USD. This debt currently has a weighted average interest rate of 4.79% and an average term to maturity of 10.2 years. Much of this is the result of their large, debt funded acquisition of Shaw Communications in 2023.

Valuation Analysis 

Rogers Communications currently owns 75% of the Toronto Raptors, 75% of the Toronto Maple Leafs, 75% of Toronto FC, and 100% of the Toronto Blue Jays. The company paid $3.5 Billion USD for 37.5% of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the company that owns these franchises, upping their share to 75% in a deal announced in September of 2024 and closed in July of 2025. This means that Rogers communications is invested in all of these franchises, and the major venues where these teams play, at a valuation of about $9.3 billion USD.

Sports franchises are currently often valued irrationally, selling for inflated prices and being treated less like a business/investment and more like a trophy symbol for billionaires, think high end art, mega yachts, or luxury real estate. Incredibly wealthy individuals are paying high prices for these franchises just for the sake of owning them, being less concerned with their valuation and ROI. In addition to purchases from individual billionaires, private equity has been investing heavily in sports. As Trump has just opened the door to private equity investments in retirement accounts, an increase in interest and capital could be seen directed towards these alternative investments, bringing more high valuations to sports franchises.  

Recently, the Los Angeles Lakers sold for 10 Billion USD, the Boston Celtics sold for 6.1 Billion USD, the Washington Commanders sold for 6.05 Billion USD, the Dallas Mavericks sold for 3.5 Billion USD, and the Charlotte Hornets sold for 3 Billion USD.  While hard to estimate their precise value due to the nature of the market for sports franchises, it is entirely possible that the market is failing to account for the likely inflated value of the sports franchises owned by Rogers Communications. This is seen as after the record high sale of the Lakers, Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), which owns the New York Knicks and the New York Islanders,  jumped about 7% to account for the increase in perceived value of major league sports teams, while Rogers Communications stock did not move significantly. Rogers Communication has the ability to possibly sell equity in their teams for high prices or employ their management to better monetize these assets and generate cash to reduce debt, or possibly invest further in their other operations.  

While less significant, Rogers communications also owns 75% of the Toronto Argonauts, Toronto’s professional American football team in the Canadian football league, through their stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. Viewership and interest in American Football in Canada has been steadily growing as the NFL has been attempting to grow in international markets. While not clear, it is possible that Rogers Communication’s stake in this team could be a potential modest upside driver in the coming years if Canadian interest in American football continues to grow. 

Building out discounted cash flow models for Rogers Communications, assuming a weighted average cost of capital of 5.15% and a terminal growth rate of 2%, a base case share price of $64.84 (+80.7%) is seen, a bear case share price of $37.65 is seen (+4.9%), and a bull case share price of $77.65 (+116.3%) is seen. While these models are far from perfect and consist of just estimates and projections, this still indicates serious upside. Refer to the models in the appendix to see all assumptions and estimates used.  

Rogers Communications has a price to earnings ratio of 14.78, an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 6.54, and an enterprise value to revenue ratio of 3.45. A comparison of these ratios to the ratios of comparable stocks is attached below. A price to earnings ratio of 27.21 is seen when averaging the price to earnings ratios of Rogers Communications and comparable stocks. Applying this multiple to Rogers Communications which had earnings per share of $2.43 USD in 2024, a share price of about $66 is seen. A EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.99 is seen when averaging the EV/EBITDA ratios of Rogers Communications and comparable stocks. Applying this multiple to Rogers communications, which had an EBITDA of $6.9 billion USD in 2024, an enterprise value of $55 billion USD is seen. Accounting for cash, debt, and share count, an enterprise value of $55 billion USD means a share price of about $54. An enterprise value to revenue ratio of 2.01 is seen when averaging the enterprise value to revenue ratio of Rogers Communications and comparable stocks. Applying this to Rogers Communications, which had 2024 revenues of $13 billion USD, means an enterprise value of $13.6 billion USD which equates to a share price of about $25.

Management

Rogers Communications currently has debts of $30.7 billion USD. This is not ideal and means that it is unlikely for a share buyback program any time soon. However, instead of an equity buy back, Rogers Communications is engaging in a debt buy back program in order to better their capital structure and reduce their interest expenses. The company offered bond holders cash tender offers, prioritizing higher cost long term debt. Announced in July of 2025, a total of $2.77 billion USD in tender offers were received. We see this as a positive decision from management and something necessary to improve capital allocation. 

In addition, management is currently selling non-core assets of the business with the intent of using the proceeds from these sales to repay debt. Most recently, in August of 2025,  the company announced an agreement with InfraRed Capital Partners to sell nine Rogers business data centers. We see an initiative like this as a major positive as it is management taking direct action to reduce debt.  

Looking at insider buying, in the last three months 950,000 shares were purchased entirely by Edward Rogers, the executive chair of Rogers communications. His average cost was $48.23 CAD or about $34.97 USD. Over the last 12 months, a total of 977,881 shares were purchased, including those bought by Edward Rogers. Only 937 shares have been sold by insiders in the last 12 months. 

A dividend of 0.37 USD is paid quarterly, working out to about 4.12% annually given their current stock price of $35.89 USD. The next record date is September 8th, 2025 and it will be paid out on October 3rd, 2025. The dividend is supported by cash flows and quite enticing to those looking for higher dividend paying stock. 

Technicals

RCI presents an opportunistic technical situation that gives positive context to a decision to buy when paired with the fundamental situation previously described. The three year weekly chart shows the emergence of an uptrend in the second quarter of this year, following a multi-year long down trend. It also indicates, by the green, horizontal line, a strong resistance around $36. The one year, daily chart also indicates a support around $35, providing a potential range of consolidation going into the future. Momentum is also shown by the 20 period simple moving average holding a higher value than the 50 period simple moving average. These factors all reinforce the buy status of RCI and provide guidelines for future decision making. Over the next few weeks, it will be important to keep an eye out for movement around the $36 USD mark, action above this level will be a good indicator of positive market sentiment. 

3 year, weekly chart:

1 year, daily chart:

Risks

We believe that potential risks for Rogers Communications include but are not limited to:

Catalysts 

We believe that potential catalysts for an increase in Rogers Communications stock price could include but are not limited to: 

Key catalyst:

Appendix 

DCF models:

Base case:

Bear case:

Bull case:

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