August 24th Report

August 24th, 2025

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J.Jill  JILL

August 24th, 2025

Last Price                      Fair Value Estimate           Market Cap                     

$17.00 USD        $45 USD                 $260M USD

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Business Overview

J.Jill is a retailer of women's clothes in the United States, selling various products, including apparel, footwear, and accessories. This includes tops, pants, shirts, dresses, sweaters, shoes, jewelry, handbags, scarves, and more. J.Jill was founded in 1959 in Massachusetts as a specialty boutique before expanding into over two hundred retail stores and an e-commerce website. The brand focuses on simple and conservative styles, utilizing high-quality materials. J.Jill targets women aged 45 and older with $150,000 or more in household income who are well educated and are free to shop whenever and wherever they  want. 

Why We Like J.Jill

We believe that J.Jill presents an attractive buying opportunity at the moment as the niche retail brand has strong financial health, a favorable market position, a dependable and loyal customer base, effective management, and high positive free cash flow relative to the company's current valuation. We see J.Jill as a stable and dependable business that will continue to generate consistent cash flows. 

Financials and margins

J.Jill has consistent revenue and margins, generating $611,000,000 in 2024, $608,000,000 in 2023, $615,000,000 in 2022, and $585,000,000 in 2021. J.Jill generated $47,000,000 in free cash flow in 2024, a 44% conversion. Taking a closer look at the company’s margins, J.Jill has had a consistent gross margin of about 70% for the past four years, in addition to an EBITDA margin of about 18%. Compared to their competitors, J.Jill generally has higher gross margins and pretty typical operating and net margins.                                                                 

An important and often overlooked facet of the business is the strong consumer base. J.Jill reported that about 50% of their customers have an income of $150,000 per year or more and that only 22% of their customers have children in their household. Additionally, J.Jill reported that 71% of their customers are college graduates. This customer base of an upper-class demographic without children that likely has more available discretionary income is one of the more important driving factors as to the company’s ability to deliver consistent revenue. 

Valuation Analysis 

In terms of valuation, J.Jill has a Price to earnings ratio of 7.69, an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 5.63, and an enterprise value to revenue ratio of 0.75. These are seen as relatively low when compared to comparable stocks. A comparison of these ratios is attached below. A price to earnings ratio of 11.25 is seen when averaging the price to earnings ratios of J.Jill and comparable stocks. Applying this multiple to J.Jill, which had earnings per share of $2.61 in 2024, a share price of $29.36 is seen. A EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.98 is seen when averaging the EV/EBITDA ratios of J.Jill and comparable stocks. Applying this multiple to J.Jill, which had an EBITDA of $77.88 million in 2024, an enterprise value of $620.8 million is seen. Accounting for cash, debt, and share count, an enterprise value of $620.8 million means a share price of about $38. An enterprise value to revenue ratio of 1.08 is seen when averaging the enterprise value to revenue ratio of J.Jill and comparable stocks. Applying this to J.Jill, which had 2024 revenues of $611 million, means an enterprise value of $660 million which equates to a share price of about $41.

Building out discounted cash flow models for J.Jill, assuming a weighted average cost of capital of 5.61% and a terminal growth rate of 2%, a base case share price of $92.59 (+428.8%) is seen, a bear case share price of $41.86 is seen (+139.1%), and a bull case share price of $125.13 (+614.6%) is seen. While these models are far from perfect and consist of just estimates and projections, this still indicates serious upside. Refer to the models in the appendix to see all assumptions and estimates used.  

Management

Looking at J.Jill's balance sheet, a minimal and manageable amount of debt is seen, positioning J.Jill for potential expansion, growth, and investment. Specifically about $69,000,000 in debt alongside $35,000,000 in cash relative to their market cap of about $264,000,000, meaning an enterprise value of about $298,000,000. J.Jill’s debt has significantly decreased in the last four years as a result of management's focus on balance sheet strengthening. 

Additionally, management has recently introduced a dividend and paid out $0.08 per share for the last three quarters. This works about 1.88% annually relative to their current stock price of $17. While not huge, the dividend is well supported and sustainable by the company's cash flows and is still enticing to those looking for a stock paying a dividend.   

Currently, J.Jill has an active share buyback program, authorized at the end of 2024. The company plans to buy back up to $25,000,000 worth of its stock over the next two years.  

 Looking at insider buying, 1,875 shares have been purchased in the last three months, over 11 open market buys, and 331,412 shares have been purchased in the last 12 months, through 59 open market buys. While 204,144 shares have been sold by insiders in the last 12 months, we do not see this as concerning due to the fact that there is still a significant amount of buying taking place. 

Recently, in May of 2025, J.Jill brought on a new CEO, Mary Ellen Coyne. Coyne has held high level positions at various other retail and fashion brands including holding the role of CEO at J.McLaughlin, Chief merchandise manager for the women’s polo, golf & tennis, and children’s division at Ralph Lauren, Senior vice president of design/merchandising/product development for Victoria's secret, and vice president of design and product development for Banana Republic. Additionally, she is currently a member of the women in retail leadership circle. We see this leadership change as a positive due to her decades long experience and connections from being in women's apparel that is being brought to J.Jill. Coyne intends to ensure that meaningful relationships are created with customers while introducing newer styles to further engage customers and making adjustments to inventory that align with current demand and trends. While she has not been CEO for long, these initiatives could be serious upside drivers for J.Jill.  

All of this put together indicates to us that J.Jill currently has very effective and efficient management with high faith in the company. 

Technicals

J.Jill presents itself breaking out of a downtrend over the last year, falling from a high of $40 to a low of $13.36, and rebounding to a price of $17.00. This provides an excellent opportunity for entry based on the fundamental analysis that has been discussed. There are various points of support and resistance noted in the chart by the light and dark blue lines. The most important resistance at this current moment is found at $17.45, it’s important to monitor price action around this level as it could indicate a confirmation of positive sentiment towards JILL. Overall, technical indicators signal that JILL is a buy.

3 year, weekly chart:

1 year, daily chart:

Risks

We believe that potential risks for J.Jill include but are not limited to: 

Key Risk:

Catalysts 

We believe that potential catalysts for an increase in J.Jill’s stock price could include but are not limited to: 

Key catalyst:

Currently, we are watching out for J.Jill’s earnings report on September 3rd to see how the new CEO has been able to manage the company in her first quarter, specifically revenue and margins, how many more shares have been repurchased, and if management is still successfully reducing debt. 

Appendix 

DCF models:

Base Case: $92.59 per share

Bear Case: $41.86 per share 

Bull Case: $125.13 per share